2027 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Beginning with the 2027 NBA Draft, the NBA will use
a new lottery format known as the 3-2-1 Lottery.
The lottery expands from 14 teams to 16 teams and includes teams that
participate in the Play-In Tournament but fail to reach the NBA
Playoffs.
Unlike the previous system, the three teams with the worst
regular-season records will not have the best odds of receiving the
No. 1 overall pick. Those three teams are "draft relegated" and
receive two lottery balls instead of three.
| Lottery Group |
Teams |
Lottery Balls |
Odds of No. 1 Pick |
Top 3 |
Top 5 |
Top 10 |
| Three Worst Records |
3 |
2 |
5.4% |
16% |
28% |
61% |
| Other Non-Play-In Teams |
7 |
3 |
8.1% |
24% |
39% |
73% |
| No. 9 and No. 10 Play-In Seeds |
4 |
2 |
5.4% |
16% |
28% |
59% |
| Losers of No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In Games |
2 |
1 |
2.7% |
8% |
15% |
35% |
How the 3-2-1 NBA Draft Lottery Works
A total of 16 teams participate in the new lottery.
Each participating team receives either three, two or one lottery
ball depending on where it finished and whether it participated in
the Play-In Tournament.
The seven non-Play-In teams outside the bottom three receive
three lottery balls apiece. This gives each of those
teams an 8.1% chance of receiving the first overall pick.
The three teams with the worst records receive only
two lottery balls apiece. This gives each of those
teams a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick. This rule is designed to reduce
the incentive for teams to finish with the league's worst record.
The No. 9 and No. 10 Play-In seeds in each conference also receive
two lottery balls. The two teams eliminated in the
No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In games receive one lottery ball
each.
The lottery drawing determines the order of the
first 16 selections in the NBA Draft.
Draft Relegation and Pick Limits
The three teams with the worst records are considered
draft relegated. In addition to receiving fewer
lottery balls than the next seven teams, these teams can fall as far
as the No. 12 pick.
All other teams participating in the lottery can fall as far as the
No. 16 pick.
The NBA also added restrictions designed to prevent the same team
from repeatedly receiving the highest selections. A team's own pick
cannot be the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive drafts.
A team's own pick also cannot be a top-five selection in
three consecutive drafts.
These restrictions apply to the team's original pick regardless of
whether the pick has been retained or traded to another franchise.
NBA Draft Lottery Odds: 2019-2026
From 2019 through 2026, the NBA used a 14-team weighted lottery.
The teams with the three worst records each received a 14% chance
of winning the No. 1 overall selection.
Four drawings determined the first four selections. The remaining
lottery teams were placed in inverse order of their regular-season
records after the first four picks were determined.
| Lottery Position |
No. 1 Pick Odds |
| 1st Worst Record |
14.0% |
| 2nd Worst Record |
14.0% |
| 3rd Worst Record |
14.0% |
| 4th Worst Record |
12.5% |
| 5th Worst Record |
10.5% |
| 6th Worst Record |
9.0% |
| 7th Worst Record |
7.5% |
| 8th Worst Record |
6.0% |
| 9th Worst Record |
4.5% |
| 10th Worst Record |
3.0% |
| 11th Worst Record |
2.0% |
| 12th Worst Record |
1.5% |
| 13th Worst Record |
1.0% |
| 14th Worst Record |
0.5% |
2026 NBA Draft Lottery
The Washington Wizards won the 2026 NBA Draft
Lottery after entering the drawing with a 14% chance of receiving
the first overall pick.
Washington finished the 2025-26 regular season with a 17-65 record.
Indiana and Brooklyn also entered the lottery with 14% odds of
receiving the No. 1 selection.
| Team |
2025-26 Record |
No. 1 Pick Odds |
Lottery Result |
| Washington Wizards |
17-65 |
14.0% |
1 |
| Indiana Pacers |
19-63 |
14.0% |
5* |
| Brooklyn Nets |
20-62 |
14.0% |
6 |
| Utah Jazz |
22-60 |
11.5% |
2 |
| Sacramento Kings |
22-60 |
11.5% |
7 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
25-57 |
9.0% |
3 |
| New Orleans Pelicans |
26-56 |
6.8% |
8** |
| Dallas Mavericks |
26-56 |
6.7% |
9 |
| Chicago Bulls |
31-51 |
4.5% |
4 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
32-50 |
3.0% |
10 |
| Golden State Warriors |
37-45 |
2.0% |
11 |
| LA Clippers |
42-40 |
1.5% |
12*** |
| Miami Heat |
43-39 |
1.0% |
13 |
| Charlotte Hornets |
44-38 |
0.5% |
14 |
* Indiana's pick was conveyed to the LA Clippers.
** New Orleans' pick was conveyed to Atlanta.
*** The LA Clippers' pick was conveyed to Oklahoma City.
Previous NBA Draft Lottery Odds: 1994-2018
Before the 2019 reform, the team with the worst regular-season
record had a 25% chance of receiving the first
overall pick. The second-worst team had a 19.9% chance and the
third-worst team had a 15.6% chance.
| Lottery Position |
No. 1 Pick Odds |
| Worst Record |
25.0% |
| 2nd Worst Record |
19.9% |
| 3rd Worst Record |
15.6% |
| 4th Worst Record |
11.9% |
| 5th Worst Record |
8.8% |
| 6th Worst Record |
6.3% |
| 7th Worst Record |
4.3% |
| 8th Worst Record |
2.8% |
| 9th Worst Record |
1.7% |
| 10th Worst Record |
1.1% |
| 11th Worst Record |
0.8% |
| 12th Worst Record |
0.7% |
| 13th Worst Record |
0.6% |
| 14th Worst Record |
0.5% |
History of NBA Draft Lottery Odds
1985: The NBA introduced the Draft Lottery. The
non-playoff teams initially had equal chances of receiving the first
overall pick.
1990: The NBA introduced a weighted lottery system,
giving teams with worse regular-season records better odds.
1994: The lottery was revised again, giving the team
with the league's worst record a 25% chance at the No. 1 pick.
2004: The lottery expanded to 14 teams following
the addition of the Charlotte Bobcats.
2019: The NBA flattened the odds. The three teams
with the worst records each received a 14% chance at the first pick,
and the lottery began determining the first four selections.
2027: The NBA introduces the 16-team 3-2-1 Lottery.
The three worst teams receive lower odds than the next seven
non-Play-In teams, and teams eliminated from the Play-In Tournament
are included in the lottery.
Quick NBA Draft Lottery Facts
2027 lottery teams: 16
Best odds for the No. 1 pick: 8.1% under the
2027 system.
Odds for each of the three worst teams: 5.4%.
Maximum lottery balls: 3.
Fewest lottery balls: 1.
2026 lottery winner: Washington Wizards.
2025 lottery winner: Dallas Mavericks, who entered
the lottery with only a 1.8% chance at the No. 1 pick.
2024 lottery winner: Atlanta Hawks, who entered
with a 3.0% chance.
The 3-2-1 Lottery format is scheduled to be used for the
2027, 2028 and 2029 NBA Drafts. The NBA Board of
Governors will determine the rules beginning with the 2030 Draft.
